jeudi 15 mars 2007

Le Gouvernement Libéral sera défait.



Qui a dit que la monté de l'ADQ nuirait aux Parti Québécois? Si les choses continue dans la voie actuelle, c'est pourtant le PQ qui se retrouvera au gouvernement le 26 mars prochain!

À la lumière des derniers sondages, nous pouvons affirmer que le PQ a atteint le fond du baril avec 29 et quelques % d'intention de vote, sa descente s'est enfin stabilisé et on va probablement assister à une légère remonté d'ici le 26 si Boisclair continue à performer.
Le PLQ va plûtot mal de son côté, car la chute n'est pas encore fini si on se fit au sondage.
Je crois parcontre qu'elle achève parceque l'électorat gagné d'avance par les libéraux tourne autour des 33-34%.
L'ADQ quand à elle ayant effectué le plein de vote de protestation, ne peut plus espérer monter bien bien plus haut. Obtenir 30% pour le parti de Mario serait un excellent résultat à ces élections.

http://www.predictionshkdp.com/

Cela m'amène donc à vous parler de ce site, bien connu, où il est possible de transposer les % d'intention de vote, en circonscriptions sur le terrain. Et si les libéraux ont toujours ce qu'on surnomme maintenant la ''prime de l'urne'' ce n'est pas faux d'affirmer que les Péquiste détiennent ''l'avantage du terrain'', leurs intentions de vote étant mieux répartis et leurs permettant d'espérer gagner plus de circonscription.

Ainsi , en prenant les chiffres des derniers sondages, on se retrouve en face du scénario suivant: Gouvernement minoritaire péquiste avec la balance du pouvoir à l'ADQ.
Bon on devra peut-être renoncer au référendum, mais ce serait toujours bien une reprise du pouvoir par les souverainistes, minoritaire ou pas!

83 commentaires:

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Ma prédiction : gouvernement péquiste minoritaire, libéraux à l'opposition et l'ADQ gagne suffisemment de sièges pour garder son parti en vie. Ça lui laissera le temps de se monter une équipe :)

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democraticspace.com aussi a remis ses prédictions à jour. Il n'arrive pas tout à fait aux même résultats:
PLQ 54, PQ 47, ADQ 24.

C'est serré!

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